Sunday, August 5, 2012

The nicest compliment I've ever received

My wife recently paid me the nicest compliment I've ever received. She compared being married to me to driving her Acura TL-S. Okay, technically it's OUR sports car, but she drives it more than I do, so I consider it mainly hers.

So what's the resemblance?

It is that until she drove that car, she didn't realize that having a more powerful car could actually make the experience qualitatively different. Our other cars have all been Maximas, and although they are certainly not underpowered, they don't have the same ability to GO when you step on the accelerator. The instant response of the TL-S makes her feel a lot more secure when getting on the expressway (which she used to hate).

Similarly, she realized some time after we were married that having a spouse who could understand complex ideas easily and translate them into simpler terms made a qualitative difference in her life. Whenever she runs across anything particularly complicated, she often asks me to "understand it for her", and I do.

I hasten to add that she is in no way lacking in intelligence herself; we wouldn't be a very good match if that were the case. But she still finds me a handy "labor-saving device" when doing intellectual heavy lifting, and I certainly don't mind doing that for her.

In our next thrilling installment, I'll compare her to a famous movie star...

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Untold riches

I guess we can retire now, due to this enormous legal settlement!

Saturday, June 30, 2012

A sure sign that gold isn't in a bubble


Ok, so maybe this should be the "quarterly transfiguration" blog now, since I haven't posted anything since February.

But I do have an excuse: I started a new job then, and it has been very time-consuming. As if that's a surprise to anyone...

Anyway, while reading Barron's this weekend, I came across something so stunningly ridiculous that I thought I should mention it. It's from the manager of the Fidelity Equity-Income Fund, whom you wouldn't think would be interested in a certain topic. He certainly isn't knowledgeable about it!

But you can judge that for yourself. Here's his brilliant analysis:

"Now the extreme expectations that were priced into stocks in 1999 appear priced into bonds and gold, while stocks are widely unloved.
...
Then there's gold, which I think is extremely risky. Its price is up fivefold in anticipation of the greatest inflation the world's ever seen. Hyperinflation is a possibility but I don't think it's probable.

Instead of hyperinflation, consider the price history of gold.
...
For example, after gold's last peak, in the early 1980's, it dropped by about 50% in just over 18 months."

If gold is pricing in hyperinflation, what are bonds pricing in, hyperdeflation? At least one of those must be wrong!
And of course stocks could never drop by 50% in 18 months, right?
 Well...

"US stock market

The US stock market peaked in October 2007, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average index exceeded 14,000 points. It then entered a pronounced decline, which accelerated markedly in October 2008. By March 2009, the Dow Jones average had reached a trough of around 6,600."
(from Wikipedia)

Sounds like a 50% drop in 18 months to me!

Anyway, as long as we keep seeing this type of "analysis" in the mainstream financial news, we will know that there isn't any gold bubble. So keep it up, boys!



Monday, February 13, 2012

And here I thought that "galactically stupid" was just a metaphor

Apparently not...

It occurs to me that the Star Wars films have a lot to teach us about leadership styles.

In particular, the Galactic Empire strikes me as a quintessential example of how not to effectively run an organization. Let’s take a look at five of the Empire’s biggest mistakes and see how you can avoid them in your own organization.

Top Executive Recruiters Agree There Are Only Three True Job Interview Questions

Needless to say, these are not the only ones asked by most companies:

The only three true job interview questions are:

1. Can you do the job?
2. Will you love the job?
3. Can we tolerate working with you?

Monday, February 6, 2012

Yes, that does sound crazy

But on the other hand, this article from 2006 did point out a few little problems that have sort of been ignored:

I mean, if we can accept for a moment my
premise that there’s no way of curing the fiscal problem shy of a bankruptcy—
and that there’s no way the government is going to renege on
its debt—I’m sure it’ll do what has been politically expedient in the past:
You rev up the printing presses and pay off the debt with the money
that you print—even as that money becomes worthless. The thing is,
with the dollar, we are dealing with the world’s reserve currency. So we
are talking about a global crisis of unprecedented proportions, probably
one that would lead to the collapse of the current currency system.
You’d probably have to have an international conference to reconstitute
the global currency system and somehow build confidence in the public
that the new system will work and that it’s stable, so that we are not
put in the same position as the poor people of Germany, after WWI,
because that is the type of hyperinflation that could evolve here. So the
cures will have to be remarkable. They will have to convince people
that things have changed. As crazy as it sounds, I think the only thing
they will be able to do is to go back on some kind of gold standard.

Bank and non-trust

I know this is hard to believe, but...

“From my own personal experience and 20 years of research and investigation, nothing — and I mean nothing — that a bank, lender, loan servicer or their lawyer says or puts on paper can be trusted and accepted as true”, Mr. Lavalle said.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

It's almost like not having health insurance at all...

Only more expensive: "health insurance" that costs $5000/yr. and covers up to a big, big $15,000 maximum. What a bargain!

"It wasn't worth it," says Camilleri, who got his insurance through the staffing agency that placed him in his job as a test engineer. The insurance cost Camilleri $400 a month and covered himself, his wife, Bridget, 33, and stepdaughter, Stephanie, 11.

The policies are offered to the 55,000 contractors who work for staffing agency Aerotek, says spokeswoman Sherri Kraus. The policies, she says, "are highly competitive, especially within the staffing industry."

Camilleri had a choice of three plans: One covered up to $5,000 of care a year for each family member; the second, $15,000; and the third, $150,000. He chose the $15,000 plan. The most comprehensive plan would have cost him $800 a month, or about 16% of his $60,000 salary. The average cost of medical care for a family of four in 2007 enrolled in a major medical plan reached $14,500 this year, including premiums, according to a study released last month by the actuarial firm Milliman. Workers paid an average of $5,591 toward that cost, through premium contributions and out-of-pocket expenses.

Give me a sign, any sign...

Obviously the reason China is buying gold like it's going out of style can't be the reason they explicitly state: “No asset is safe now,” said the PBOC’s Zhang Jianhua at the end of last month. “The only choice to hedge risks is to hold hard currency — gold.”

Monday, January 30, 2012

Southern cooking at its "finest"

"The specialty is a buffet, which typically includes sweet potatoes, macaroni and cheese, deep-fried Twinkies, fried chicken, cheesy meatloaf, greens, beans, and creamed corn. Every meal is served with a garlic cheese biscuit and one of Deen's famous hoecakes. Her sons are also involved in managing the restaurant, which is popular with tourists to Savannah."
...
"In January 2012, she announced she has had type 2 diabetes for the last three years."
...

Maybe she will come out with a "lite" version that would have stir-fried Twinkies instead...

Saturday, January 28, 2012

New studies reveal caffeinated coffee protects against Alzheimer's, diabetes, depression and prostate cancer

Of course, as with any research, one has to add the qualifier "this week". But still this sounds pretty good!

Can I have a pony too?

"AARP, formerly the American Association of Retired Persons and a powerful interest group for older Americans, recently launched a national advertising campaign urging members of Congress to protect current and future retirees from cuts to their Social Security and Medicare benefits."

Now they tell us!

Ok, this is a little out of date, but of course nothing has been done about it.

Not that there is anything that can be done at this point...

"Do you hear that rumble in the distance? That is the Baby Boomers - they are getting ready to retire. On January 1st, 2011 the very first Baby Boomers turn 65. Millions upon millions of them are rushing towards retirement age and they have been promised that the rest of us are going to take care of them. Only there is a huge problem. We don't have the money. It simply isn't there. But the millions of Baby Boomers getting ready to retire are counting on that money to be there."

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

"A Way to Make People Buy Homes Again"

The idea that making people buy homes will help the economy recover is an example of a modern day "cargo cult":

'The primary association in cargo cults is between the divine nature of "cargo" (manufactured goods) and the advanced, non-native behavior, clothing and equipment of the recipients of the "cargo". Since the modern manufacturing process is unknown to them, members, leaders, and prophets of the cults maintain that the manufactured goods of the non-native culture have been created by spiritual means, such as through their deities and ancestors, and are intended for the local indigenous people, but that the foreigners have unfairly gained control of these objects through malice or mistake. Thus, a characteristic feature of cargo cults is the belief that spiritual agents will, at some future time, give much valuable cargo and desirable manufactured products to the cult members.'

In this particular case, it is economics rather than "the modern manufacturing process" that is unknown to the "members, leaders and prophets of the cult", but the essential error is the same: trying to acquire the end product of a process by miraculous means rather than through the hard work and knowledge necessary to implement the process in question.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

I'm expecting an objection from the Condiment Defense League

As Jonathan Turley pointed out,

"Elected Officials Score Lower on Civics Tests Than Average Citizens (Who Score Lower than Basic Condiments)"

If you want to take the test yourself, it's here.

Monday, January 23, 2012

That depends on the definition of "detained"

Sen. Rand Paul’s chief of staff Doug Stafford responded to the TSA’s claim that the senator was “not detained at any point.” “Well, I don’t know what bureaucrat manuals call it, but: an innocent American citizen who was offering to cooperate while also attempting to stop an invasive search was not allowed to proceed without complying,” Stafford said in an email to TheDC.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

You certainly wouldn't want to invest like this!

Over the last decade, [Ron] Paul's portfolio has beaten the market as well as the vast majority of hedge funds, yet Barron's labeled Paul's investment strategy a "financial planner's nightmare." Okay, so what? After all, should an investor's priority be how soundly their financial planner sleeps or the identification of suitable and timely investments that present a value proposition?
Perhaps Barron's feels Paul was too focused on winners, and needed to diversify into some losers.

Austrian economics in five minutes

Without property rights, there cannot be a free market in the exchange of goods and services.

Without a free market, without a willing buyer and a willing seller, it is IMPOSSIBLE to know the real price of anything.


Without the price, it is IMPOSSIBLE for anyone to make the necessary economic calculation, that is to know when the inputs to an activity (labor or raw materials) costs more or less than the output of an activity (the value of the thing produced or service performed).

Without the economic calculation, it is IMPOSSIBLE for an economic activity to make a profit and thus be sustainable. Conversely, it is IMPOSSIBLE for an unprofitable economic activity to be sustainable.

Without profit, it is IMPOSSIBLE to have resources from which to feed, clothe and house those who are involved in the activity.

Without profit, it is IMPOSSIBLE, to have excess resources to set aside in the form of savings.

Without savings, it is IMPOSSIBLE to have capital to invest in new economic activities.

Without the ability to have property rights to those savings, it is IMPOSSIBLE to evaluate all of the other possible economic activities to find the ones that carries the least risk when compared to their anticipated return, and to properly allocate savings to the most promising investments.

Without new economic activity and without the ability for others to invest as it suits the saver, the economy cannot have the opportunity nor the resources with which to adapt to changing circumstances, let alone to provide jobs and resources for the next generation.

Without honest money, government is free to destroy the very means of accounting for, saving and exchanging wealth. Without the assurance that money will retain its value, people will not save but instead will either consume excess wealth or will store it in forms like fixed assets that preclude investment in new economic activity.

In other words, without property rights, a free market, price information that allows economic calculation of profit, the ability to save with the assurance those savings are free to be invested when and where the saver sees fit, and without honest money, a sustainable economy is IMPOSSIBLE.

Without a sustainable economy, it is IMPOSSIBLE for humans enjoy any level of prosperity. This is exactly the reason that North Koreans are reduced to foraging for bark and grass to fill their empty stomachs. Their government forbids property rights, forbids a free market, destroys price information, confiscates savings, forbids investment and has no economic growth.

Liberty, property, profit, investment, capital and honest money are the only means of creating a sustainable economy. All other ways have been tried and have failed utterly. Yet, somehow, property rights, profit, capital and honest money are still considered to be evil, particularly in the thinking of people still yearning for the perfect socialist Utopia. Socialism is in reality the economy of death.

At $1 million/oz., there's PLENTY of gold

"The gold coin standard, although imperfectly adhered to, permitted startling economic growth combined with falling prices in the 19th century," [Ron] Paul wrote in his 1981 book "Gold, Peace and Prosperity: The Birth of a New Currency." "In the 67 years since the abolition of the gold standard, the Consumer Price Index has gone up 625 percent. In the previous 67 years, under an imperfect gold coin standard, the CPI increased 10 percent."

Mark Thoma, an economics professor at the University of Oregon who also has written on the gold standard, said there's not enough gold in the world to cover the value of global transactions and thus alleviate the need for paper money — meaning governments would still want to float their currencies' value against gold.

I guess that depends on your definition of "counted"

*Gingrich won most of the votes of people who said religion counted; Romney won those who said it did not.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

The American way of life (or death)

Sickcare, the fast-food/packaged food industries, the entertainment industry and the Marketing/Mainstream Media complex are all facets of one system.

Read the whole article.

Taking a "fair and balanced" CNN moderator to task

Following a back-and-forth between Republican presidential candidates Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, King changed the topic, only to be booed by the crowd.

Because he had completely ignored the fourth candidate on stage, Paul.


Paul laughed off the oversight, noting “John, once again, it’s a medical subject and I’m a doctor!” Paul, an obstetrician, went on to weigh in on the subject.

Sure, if by "uphold" you mean "eviscerate"

Addressing what supporters claim about the NDAA, Paul continued:

Some have argued that nothing in Section 1021 explicitly mandates holding Americans without trial, but it employs vague language, radically expanding the detention authority to include anyone who has substantially supported certain terrorist groups or associated forces. No one has defined what those terms mean. What is an associated force?

But as noted by Paul, members of Congress are all too willing to infringe upon constitutional rights under the guise of security, and to use fear mongering to coerce Americans into willingly allowing their rights to be infringed upon. He even referred to a statement by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) regarding the indefinite detention of American citizens. Paul observed,

Sadly, too many of my colleagues are too willing to undermine our Constitution to support such outrageous legislation. One senator even said about American citizens being picked up under this section of the NDAA, "When they say I want a lawyer, you tell them, shut up. You don't get a lawyer."

Is this acceptable in someone who has taken an oath to uphold the Constitution?

Friday, January 20, 2012

"Freedom is slavery"

according to George Orwell's "1984".

Now let's hear what Rick Santorum says about freedom:

"According to Santorum, who apparently fancies himself as an historian, freedom in America means "the freedom to do what you ought to do – what you
are properly ordered to do [by a politician like himself] – as someone living a good, decent, and ordered life
" (emphasis added). "That’s the
differentiation that I believe Ron Paul and I have with respect to what liberty is," said Santorum. To Rick Santorum, "freedom" means doing what
government "properly" orders you to do, as long as government is controlled by good, proper, moral people like himself, the K-Street lobbyist for the
Pennsylvania coal mining industry (and anyone else who will pay his huge fees for influence peddling)."

What does Ron Paul want?

On the surface, I'm not sure why anyone needs to ask this question. He wants to be President, as do all the candidates; otherwise, he wouldn't be running.

But on another level, that is a good question, even though the author of the referenced "article" doesn't know it. The reason Dr. Paul wants to be President is to greatly reduce the Federal government's intervention into our lives. So in that way, his desire is greatly different from that of the other candidates, all of whom want to increase that intervention.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Of course, it's a little harder to change the rules in the real world

In the days since the encounter with five Iranian patrol boats in the Strait of Hormuz, American officers have acknowledged that they have been studying anew the lessons from a startling simulation conducted in August 2002. In that war game, the Blue Team navy, representing the United States, lost 16 major warships — an aircraft carrier, cruisers and amphibious vessels — when they were sunk to the bottom of the Persian Gulf in an attack that included swarming tactics by enemy speedboats.
...
General Van Riper’s attack was much more complex and sophisticated than anything that could have involved the Iranian boats last weekend. The broad outline of the 2002 war game was reported at the time, but in interviews since last weekend’s episode, General Van Riper and other officers have provided new details about the simulation.

In the war game, scores of adversary speedboats and larger naval vessels had been shadowing and hectoring the Blue Team fleet for days. The Blue Team defenses also faced cruise missiles fired simultaneously from land and from warplanes, as well as the swarm of speedboats firing heavy machine guns and rockets — and pulling alongside to detonate explosives on board.

When the Red Team sank much of the Blue navy despite the Blue navy’s firing of guns and missiles, it illustrated a cheap way to beat a very expensive fleet. After the Blue force was sunk, the game was ordered to begin again, with the Blue Team eventually declared the victor.

At least there are only two places the government overspends

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul returned from the campaign to warn of global consequences if Congress fails to curb spending.

"I believe we're in denial here in the Congress," Paul said on the House floor. "If we had the vaguest idea of how serious this crisis is financially, not only for us but for the world, we'd cut spending, because you can't solve the problem of debt by accumulating more debt."

The Texas lawmaker deadpanned that the federal government's overspending is at least [be] limited to two places.


"Where do we spend too much money? In two places: overseas and domestically."

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Keystone XL rejection causes Canada to look to China

Harper, Oliver and Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird had all said they supported the Keystone XL pipeline and that they would find alternate markets for Canadian energy if the U.S. isn't interested.
Harper is visiting China next month and is expected to discuss ways to increase trade.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/01/18/pol-keystone-xl-pipeline.html

What they conveniently forgot to mention was that the intended destination for the "oil" being sent south via the Keystone XL pipeline wasn't the US anyway.

Fantasy -> reality

With all the spinning coming out of the news media, we need someone to translate the news from fantasy into reality. Let's give it a try.